The market provides for the possibility of a change in trend for the dollar
Washington - June 4, 2008 - Day hangover in the currency market. The market tries to assimilate the "drunk" comments on the dollar that the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, took yesterday. Traders observe carefully the movements of the dollar because they think they can take the path of recovery in the coming months. A look at the euro / dollar exchange.
Speaking of your currency, Bernanke broke with a tradition of nearly 30 years that the Fed never spoke of the green ticket. In addition, the U.S. central bank that until now had been so clearly on the side of the market begins to switch sides and give greater importance to prices, as it did the ECB since the beginning of the crisis. And that involves, first, that should not be expected lowest rates in the U.S., something that was already largely discounted and, secondly, that we can even expect some increase in a period not too long. This is the second it new information
"The zone 1.58 / 1.6 U.S. dollars has led to a turn bearish starting to set up the possibility of a change in trend. For the first time in a great deal of time talking about the dollar as a counterattack to break the upward trend in short / medium term. below the zone of 1.52 dollars per euro confirm a pattern of roof known as bearish head and shoulders and enable addition, the loss of the bullish channel that guides hikes in recent months, "says Carlos Bending, analysts technician Bolságora.
At the moment, the euro moves around the 1.5453 dollars, virtually flat in anticipation of what might happen tomorrow at the monthly meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to keep the entity rates steady at 2% but also harden his anti-inflationary. On this day, the currency has ranged between 1.5419 and 1.5438. dollars.
As if what was said yesterday by Bernanke were not enough, the euro was pressured today by the drop in retail sales, which suffered a decline in April interannual 2.9%, while in monthly terms fell by 0.6%. Analysts contacted by Thomson Financial were expecting falls below 0.1% monthly and 0.8%.
The data that have come from the United States have also put more weight on top of the euro and have more arguments for the resurgence of the dollar. The U.S. labor productivity grew by 2.6% in the first quarter of 2008 and the ISM services fell less than expected.
At the moment, analysts believe the euro is looking for a soil at levels of between 1.52 y1, 53 dollars. More specifically, monitor the media in 1.5341, at least March 24, and at 1.5146, at least on March 5.
Source: El Economista