Analysts expect further contraction to Mexican economy

Private analysts expect a deeper downturn in the economy of Mexico this year and a slight recovery in 2010, a poll showed the central bank.

Analysts predict a contraction of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 6.3% this year, higher than the 5.8% who were expecting a month earlier, according to the June survey from the Bank of Mexico (central) 30 analysis groups and foreign .

Mexico is undergoing its worst economic recession since the mid-1990 with the help of its main trading partner: United States, and analysts anticipate a further blow by the outbreak of influenza that affected the country AH1N1 especially in May.

The Mexican government estimates that the economy will shrink 5.5% this year, but the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)-in which Mexico is a member-calculated until a drop of 8.0 percent.

The central bank survey showed analysts expect declines in the three remaining quarters of the year for broadcast.

Collapse for the second half

For the second quarter, projecting a drop of up to 9.5% annual rate, its worst drop since the Mexican economy has changed its structure to the entry into force of the Free Trade of North America (NAFTA) in 1994.

The Mexican economy fell by 8.2% in the first quarter at annual rate for the third and fourth quarters, analysts expect lower 5.2 and 2.0% respectively.

The experts consulted by the central bank between 18 and 29 June said they expect the Mexican economy grows 2.1% in 2010.

For the price index, analysts estimated an increase of 0.21% in June, while the underlying index, considered a better parameter to measure the behavior of prices-an increase of 0.27% in that month.

As for the annual measure, analysts estimate that the overall index will be located on a 4.37% at year-end from 4.41% of the interviews, said the Bank.

BMA has an inflation target of 3.0% + / - one percentage point. Until May, the index stood at an annual 5.98 percent.